The Fiscal Cliff- A Quick Note

OK, OK, I'm convinced that the "Fiscal Cliff" at the end of this year is going to be a problem.  Previously I had said that I looked forward to tax rates returning to Clinton-era levels.  But liberal economists are joining conservatives in saying that this would be very bad for the economy while it's still doing so poorly.

Of course liberals have different reasons than conservatives for saying this.  Conservatives have been saying that tax hikes are always bad, no matter what the rates before and no matter what problem they're trying to solve (hell, Paul Ryan is still trying to convince us that the deficit problem can be solved with tax cuts, which would do the exact opposite).

So I do want taxes returned to previous levels, with which our government can be sustained.  But it can't really happen on the middle class yet- a tax hike will be anti-stimulative.  That will be fine when unemployment is back below 6%, but not now.

The problem is that I don't trust the Democrats on this issue, and I fear they'll make the Bush tax cuts permanent in their negotiations with a hard-line GOP.  I sure hope they can keep their eyes on this tax prize.

On Gratefulness and Cluelessness

Last weekend my son had a bar mitzvah, obviously a huge event in the life of my family.  I managed to avoid any national or local politics in my speech welcoming the guests, but the thoughts managed to creep into my consciousness.  So bear with me:

Reflecting on the life of my family, I realize how incredibly lucky we are.  My children are doing well and making me proud every day.  I love my wife.  I stress about money, but we have enough to live comfortably.  I have a great extended family (some so awesome that they even read this blog!) and warm and caring friends.  In my talk I said:

So in some ways I think a Life Well Lived is one in which we’re grateful for all the good fortune we’ve had
 

And here's where I veer into the political.  I read this today from David Frum.  The post started by quoting a particularly hateful rant from Michelle Malkin about the 47%:

The question is not to deplore, but to understand. Where do emotions like these come from? How is it that so many who seem to be such golden winners of life's lottery manage to generate so much hatred, fear, and contempt for those who have fared less well? It would make an ugly kind of sense if such rage were expressed by those who had less against those who had more. But who stands at the highest window in the building to drop slop onto the heads of the unfortunates standing 10 or 12 stories below?
 

Exactly.  In a similar vein, we hear the Romneys talk about how hard they've worked to get what they have.  Ann Romney famously explained that in graduate school they were forced to live off the meager income from some stock given to him by his father.  It seems like Mitt and the many of the 1% are convinced that their enormous wealth is ironclad proof of their virtue.  That's one of the things that's so striking about the secret Romney video- the audience of wealthy donors are all buying into the meme that "the 47%" are moochers living off the public trough.  Some of us thought that the whole thing about how the "tipping point" is being reached and the poor are going to start voting for handouts from the rich was just a cynical argument for the rubes- but no!  The plutocrats at that Romney fundraiser really believe it!

I think it was Ann Richards who said about George W. Bush: "Poor George! He was born on 3rd base and thought he hit a triple".  I think Mitt Romney also thinks he hit a triple- certainly he's trying to convince us all that he worked hard for all he had, and came from nothing.  This from a guy whose father was president of an auto company!

Now I'm not quite as lucky financially as Mitt Romney.  But I'm pretty damn lucky.  Hell, I was born on 2nd base, a relative winner in the historical lottery.  But at least I don't believe I hit a double.

Maybe one of the things that drives people to become filthy rich is that they're never satisfied with what they've got.  But I think it's a little sad, never to be happy and grateful with what we've been given.  We've all got problems- the Romney family is dealing with Ann's Multiple Sclerosis after all- but when you balance it all out, most people in the 1% have it incredibly good and getting better.  Why are they so angry at the rest of us?

"You Didn't Build That" Foolishness

A friend pointed me to this silly video

The whole "you didn't build that" thing is basically a Truism. This video even highlights the truism in a way- of course we're talking about a little school girl, but let's take that example anyway. In fact, it's quite true that she couldn't build her school project without the raw materials (which someone else paid for). The acknowledgment of that fact isn't even controversial. When you look at the right wing argument in this light, it's totally ridiculous- OF COURSE businesses use the roads, police forces, education systems, and copyright laws of the government to enhance their ability to build their businesses. Obviously the little girl couldn't build her project if she didn't have the support of the school, her parents, etc. That such a banal point has been blown up into the centerpiece of the Republican attack machine just shows how pathetic their campaign and program is right now.

Poor Mitt

Mitt Romney appears to be sinking; polls show Obama pulling out to a significant lead.  In swing states he may be pulling away.  And Republicans are starting to point fingers and give advice about what Romney has to do to change things around.

But as I see things, it's not his fault.   Well, kind of not his fault... in a way.  .....Maybe it's more accurate to say that he has no plausible way out of his predicament.

Here's what I mean: the only way Romney could win the GOP nomination was to move hard right in order to fend off the parade of true right wingers threatening him.  He probably wanted to shift to the center for the general election, but the True Believers knew that was the plan and they worked hard to box him in so he couldn't do so.

So he tied himself to Paul Ryan and the extreme economic wing of the party, and he can't extricate himself.  He's committed to policies (tax cuts for millionaires, changing Medicare to a voucher program, a tax plan that would require either huge deficits or tax hikes on the middle class to add up, maximalist position on abortion and birth control) that are generally unpopular.  He hoped he could win the election by staying vague about these plans and hoping people hating on Obama would be enough to bring him victory.

But it's not working.  People want specifics.  And Mitt Romney's actual specifics are either unpopular or don't add up.  He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

It's too bad that partisan Republicans will only blame their flawed candidates instead of their flawed policies. (I don't doubt partisan Democrats would do the same in a similar situation).  McCain didn't lose in 2008 because of anything he said or any kind of strategy he employed; he lost because the economy was in tatters and it was clear that Republican policies had caused it.  Romney isn't a very good politician, I grant you, but he's also stuck with a really unpopular set of policies.

[This will be a very embarrassing post if Romney ends up winning in November]

Now THAT's a Gaffe!

Mitt Romney really stepped in it here:

There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that's an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what…These are people who pay no income tax.  [M]y job is is not to worry about those people. I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.
 

Wow.  Now I've been hearing this crap about how the bottom half of Americans pay no taxes in the Right Wing Chamber for a while.  The theory is that Democrats' strategy is to get most of American dependent on government transfer payments so they'll vote for liberals, destroying the country in the process by taxing the job creators to death.

The 47% number fits the style of Romney-Ryan.  It's not an absolute lie, just totally misleading.

• The number refers to the percentage of American who pay federal income taxes.  Many many more pay payroll taxes and local taxes, and of course everyone pays sales taxes.
• A big percentage of the 47% are Senior Citizens, who pay nothing because Social Security payouts are exempt.  But of course most of them have paid lots of taxes throughout their lives.
• Another big chunk of the 47% are young people- students, low-wage workers who will soon be making enough money to crack the taxing barrier.  These people will be paying federal income taxes in the future.
• Some are even multi-millionaires who had big paper losses and can carry over their capital loss, paying no income taxes in some years.  Heck, Mitt Romney himself might even be in that category!

The interesting, almost diabolical thing here is that those in the above categories don't think of themselves as part of the 47%, so Republicans hope they'll get all outraged too, even though this is aimed at them!  Maybe it will work, but I doubt it.

Krugman puts up this helpful graph:


So from ages 25 to 57 the percentage of Americans paying federal income taxes is around 70%.  Include payroll taxes and it's more like 82%.

Krugman's commentary in his next post makes the point that what's going on here is that the intellectuals in the movement made up this meme to hoodwink and rile up the masses, only to find out that even the supposedly sophisticated Wall Street guys have come to believe it too!

Jon Chait is great on this stuff too, noting that Romney surprised him in that he clearly believes this stuff sincerely- Chait insists this isn't a pander to the audience, but looks more like his true beliefs.

I know that if Romney loses the election, then right wingers are going to blame the candidate, but really this is all about the right wing; Romney has had to move so far right that he's just over the cliff.  If he says what the nuts want, he sounds like a nut.  But he's too boxed in to "etch a sketch" back to the center with any credibility.  I almost felt sorry for the guy, who seems to have no plausible message exept to tear down Obama.  But after hearing this, I'm with Chait- he really believes it.  I guess you're really a good pandering flip-flopper when you actually believe what you've flopped to.

9/11/01 Thoughts

I didn't know anyone who died on that day.  But it's the Moment of communality for my generation.  The Greatest Generation had Pearl Harbor.  The Boomers had the JFK assassination.  And we have 9/11.

I'm always struck by the nihilism of the terrorist mindset, the sheer pointlessness of the whole operation.  Yes, they succeeded spectacularly in killing lots of Americans, but on the other hand their attack served no military purpose, brought Al Qaeda no closer to the Caliphate that they desire, and in fact set back the organization and its supporters in the Taliban, as they brought down the might of a focused United States upon them.  They lashed out in an angry rage, but the actions seem really ill-considered even for their own cause.

I don't think it's helpful to talk about "evil" when confronting the mindset of the hijackers.  I think "twisted" covers it better.  Somehow they convinced themselves that what they were doing was not only not evil, but in fact morally just and righteous.  Among this subset of radical Islamists, morality has been altered beyond recognition as a way to focus their rage (some of it legitimate) over their station and the relative lack of power of their people.  Maybe that's what Evil is, after all.

Anyway, no political statements here.  Innocent people shouldn't be made to die for a cause.  Any cause for which innocents are intentionally targeted is inherently immoral.

Mitt Romney Believes in Stimulus After All!

It's true.  Mitt Romney believes in the virtues of government spending to boost the economy..... as long as the spending is on the military.  He's running a series of ads in swing states slamming the President for cutting military spending, and promises to boost defense spending.  We're familiar with some of the reasoning- it's important that America remain the strongest country in the world.  Heck, the military is like other departments in that there is always more need if the money is out there.

But that's not the only argument.

The one running in Virginia, near me, says: “Here in Virginia, we’re not better off under President Obama. His defense cuts threaten over 130,000 jobs—lowering home values, putting families at risk.” Similar ads in other states complain that Obama’s reductions in military spending threaten 20,000 jobs in Colorado, 20,000 in Ohio, and “thousands more” in Florida and North Carolina.
 

So the Pentagon is a jobs program too.

Now don't get me wrong- I actually agree with Mitt that increased military spending would boost the economy- it's stimulative.   But increasing the number of postal workers would stimulate too.  Same with teachers, firefighters, policemen, and IRS workers.  In other words, government spending can stimulate a demand-constrained economy like ours.  Mitt Romney- Keynesian hero!

But in the hermetically-sealed bubble of the Republican party, only defense spending can add jobs, while other spending actually kills jobs.  If Republicans want to use the government to add jobs, it has to involve blowing stuff up, or it just doesn't rate.