Evan Bayh and the "Moderate" fallacy- posted by DT

Evan Bayh is retiring from the Senate, and it looks like he will be mourned as one of the few "moderates" trying to get things done while the Left and Right can only bicker. But what does it mean to be "moderate"? What do moderates believe in?

Now I'm not saying that you have to be a radical in order to believe in something- I think there are true moderates out there, and many of them are my friends. But what Evan Bayh and Olympia Snowe seem to be doing is looking Left, looking Right, and deciding that if they're right between those poles, then they must be right.

Now let's take an example: the Stimulus Bill passed early last year. Keynesian Economists said it should be well over $1 Trillion in order to have the desired effect and kick-start the economy. Obama then proposed around an $850 Billion stimulus in order to be more moderate. So then "moderates" in the Senate (Bayh, Ben Nelson, Snowe) said it had to be under $800 Billion or they woudn't vote for it. Why that number? Because it's less than what Obama wanted, which was in turn less than what the economic experts wanted, but more than the Right wanted (which was zero I guess). Was there any evidence-based or theoretical reason for this number? No, it was just in between so it seemed moderate. That's like a student taking a Math test, looking at the papers of the kids on either side of him and seeing two different answers, and averaging them for his own answer.

So now we have an economy saved from disaster by the stimulus and bank bailouts, but with unemployment still stuck in the mud and likely to be stuck there for years because the stimulus wasn't big enough. That's the kind of moderation- vapid, simplistic- that we don't need.

George W Bush did not moderate his call for tax cuts in 2001-2002. The political strategists were smart: they asked for a whole loaf and a half, and got 90% of the loaf in the end. Obama's just asking for half, and getting a quarter. The Democrats have to be smarter and tougher than Evan Bayh if they want to stay in power and get anything done.


One problem with blogging is that everything one writes has been written before- it's plagiarism central. Check out this: http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_tyranny_of_the_centrists for a year-old version of this same point.