Sorry I haven't posted in a while; I've been engaged in an extensive off-line email debate with a true Right-wing nut case, and frankly it's exhausting. I'll try to put a post together with that material when I get the chance.
But here's a quick hitter: it's generally accepted that the Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats in November, and possibly even lose control of the House. I'm surprised at how much this is accepted by my favorite bloggers on the Left, and I guess that's where the data leads.
Now it's almost always the case that the party in control of the Presidency loses seats at the midterm election. This year one would expect that even more, because the Democrats are basically at the high-water mark; they won everything in 2008, including lots of seats in traditional Republican areas, which can't all be kept now. Meanwhile there's just nothing left to take- Republicans after 2008 were basically left with mostly just their "rump" areas, none of which are going Democrat any time soon.
Still, I don't think pessimism is in order here. We'll lose seats, for reasons stated above, but if the economy is improved by November and if liberals can win some rhetorical battles around the good things in the Health Care law, I'd like to think the damage won't be catastrophic.
I'm probably overly optimistic, but that's how I feel today.
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I agree with you, Foundryman. I am also less pessimistic than the pundits. I think that what we're seeing is the fruit of a massive corporate and Republican Misinformation Blitz. The actual health care law people will supposedly fire the Dems for passing is not radical and contains many elements devised and advocated by the Right for decades. Obama hit the nail on the head when he described the "lack of bipartisanship" as a naked political strategy that has failed. When/if people are not flim-flammed out of seeing reality, they will likely not flock to the unhinged Teabaggers who represent the latest Republican base. Fingers crossed and powder dry, I am ever,
ReplyDeleteThe Gun Toting Liberal.
Dad- how do you have an offline e-mail debate?
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