Beware 2012 (posted by DT)

I was watching "Morning Joe" on MSNBC this morning, and there was speculation about whether Sarah Pailin was a legitimate candidate for president in 2012. The pundits were talking about what sort of strategy she would need to win the primary, etc. Finally, Mike Barnicle (not one of my favorite people, but that's a topic for another day) opined that she would get crushed in the general election if she won the primary.

Unfortunately, I'm not so sure. I've come around to the belief (well stated by one of my favorite bloggers Matt Yglesias) that general elections are decided by the Fundamentals. If the economy is in the toilet, the incumbent loses. If things are great, the incumbent wins. So while part of me would root for a Pailin victory over a more electable Mitt Romney, the other part of me worries that if things are bad, Obama goes down regardless and I should probably hope for a less crazy Republican candidate. Romney turns my stomach and is an opportunistic liar with no real beliefs, but I think he has better judgment than Sarah Pailin and her ilk.