Happy Debt Ceiling Day!

So today is the day that we reach the Debt Ceiling, and we're still waiting for Washington to raise the Debt Limit so that borrowing can continue.  And as I search the news at 8:45 PM Eastern time, it looks like the day will come and go.  I guess it's no big deal, as the Treasury can play some games to get us to August relatively painlessly.  But if the ceiling isn't raised eventually, the US would have to default on some mandatory payments such as debt service (which seems unlikely- can't upset the bondholders) or social security (can't do that- old people vote) or maybe social programs (bingo!).  Apparently the bond market is unconcerned, as interest rates remain low so the rest of the world's budgets must be even worse or something.

As I've written before, it's really frustrating to watch Obama invite hostage-taking by Republicans, who say they won't allow the debt ceiling to be raised without budget concessions- even though John Boehner is on record admitting that it has to be raised and the entire Wall Street elite is clearly saying the same thing.  I can only conclude that Obama is willing to make "concessions" becuase they're not really concessions at all- he's very comfortable with more spending cuts and uninterested in fighting for a clean vote even though the politics of the matter favor the Democrats.
But a thought occurs to me.  This is really cynical, so I really don't want this to be right.  Let me lay it out:

• The Democrats are still in power for the most part- in control of the Senate and the Presidency. 
• Failing to raise the debt ceiling will be bad for the economy and will make it much harder to finance our debt.  It could jeopardize the recovery.
• Failure in the economy will politically benefit the party that is out of power
• The Republicans are the party out of power- mostly
• Because the Republicans are in control of the House, they do have the power to block the increase in the debt ceiling
• Even if Republicans in the House are clearly responsible for the failure to raise the ceiling, they have proven expert at twisting and confusing facts in the Common Wisdom through Fox News and with the help of the pathetic mainstream media- and remember they're (mostly) not the ones in power
• Democrats continue to be just terrible at power politics, of the sort that might force some conservatives to do the responsible thing

Again, sure hope this is just a cynical fantasy!