The Republican Party Split

I've been reading lately about the GOP split looming between the Wall Street low taxes crowd and the Tea Party nuts who want the US to default on its debt.  As the Debt Ceiling default gets closer, it seems that Republican elites are starting to worry that they've joined forces with people who are just too crazy to ally with.  This portends a possible breakup of the coalition that has been very successful- old-time economic conservatives allied with Christian evangelicals, who seem to be the people doubling as Tea Party crazies now.

The coalition has worked because the populists in the heartland and South cared about different stuff from the moneyed coastal types.  The elites could live with abortion and gay rights restrictions as long as they got their low taxes.  They even converted lots of evangelicals, who really shouldn't be low-tax types (I don't think there's anything in Jesus' teaching about lower taxes creating economic growth, after all), but are now into it hook, line, and sinker.

So while I enjoy my wistful hopes that this will destroy the Republican party (I know, I know- not very likely but a guy can dream), I'm reminded of some conventional wisdom that has turned out to be wrong.  We warned in 2010 that the Tea Party was nothing more than the same old Republican party recycled, that they would just be "don't tax but still spend" politicians once they got in there, or that they would be co-opted by the power of Washington and would continue to run up deficits just like Republicans have been doing for 30 years.

But it seems to have turned out a little differently.  To their credit, the Tea Party House members are sticking to their guns and demanding lots of cuts to government.  They're also sticking to their guns on taxes of course.  They've never said they would compromise in congress, so they're sticking with their principles there too in refusing to deal with the fact that the House is only one half of one branch of government and they have to deal with other powers in order to govern.  In short, they're everything they said they'd be, much to my surprise.

The problem is that the implications of what they said they'd be aren't any better than if they were just plain old-fashioned Republicans.  US default would be a big deal, and seems to be a possibility.  Responsible Republican elites had better sit up and realize what they're reaping.