Wednesday, November 16, 2011

What if the Fed is Playing for Team Republican?

So here's what I've been thinking about with regard to macroeconomics recently:

What if the Republicans win in '12 and start austerity policies, but at the same time the Fed finally starts getting really active and floods the money supply, announces 4% inflation targets, etc? As I've predicted before, Republican fiscal policies will throw the country back into severe recession (if the European debt crisis hasn't already done the trick, that is). But the more I read about the role of central banks, the more I wonder if, even with interest rates already at rock-bottom, they could do more to improve the economy.

So if the Republicans win and implement austerity starting in 2013, but the Fed comes out with guns blazing and higher inflation targets, then you have a mixed outlook for the economy according to conventional analysis. But Fed action may be enough to fuel growth. And the Republicans in elective office will get the credit. Liberal screeching about the Fed's refusal to do enough when they were in charge will be too obscure to gain any traction. I'll start wondering about the Fed managers' independence, as they would essentially be partisan players under this scenario. (The Federal Reserve Board is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, but politicians have no control over their actions once they're in office).

Then again, my guy Obama reappointed Bernanke and has been slow to fill other vacancies. This might be seen as a huge failure when all is said and done.  Bernanke was always known to be a conservative- here Obama's attempt to show his "new tone in Washington" may bite him in the rear.


Tough to know what to root for when!

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