Outlook for midterm elections (posted by DT)

Sorry I haven't posted in a while; I've been engaged in an extensive off-line email debate with a true Right-wing nut case, and frankly it's exhausting. I'll try to put a post together with that material when I get the chance.

But here's a quick hitter: it's generally accepted that the Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats in November, and possibly even lose control of the House. I'm surprised at how much this is accepted by my favorite bloggers on the Left, and I guess that's where the data leads.

Now it's almost always the case that the party in control of the Presidency loses seats at the midterm election. This year one would expect that even more, because the Democrats are basically at the high-water mark; they won everything in 2008, including lots of seats in traditional Republican areas, which can't all be kept now. Meanwhile there's just nothing left to take- Republicans after 2008 were basically left with mostly just their "rump" areas, none of which are going Democrat any time soon.

Still, I don't think pessimism is in order here. We'll lose seats, for reasons stated above, but if the economy is improved by November and if liberals can win some rhetorical battles around the good things in the Health Care law, I'd like to think the damage won't be catastrophic.

I'm probably overly optimistic, but that's how I feel today.

Crossroads (Posted by AS)

"I went down to the crossroads, fell down on my knees;
Down to the crossroads, fell down on my knees;
Asked the Lord above for mercy, save me if you please."
(with apologies to Eric Clapton, Ginger Baker, Jack Bruce AND Robert Johnson)

Every boy on Long Island (and lots of other places too) born between, say, 1960 and 1972, probably knows the classic blues song Crossroads as done by Cream. Maybe it was even one of the sources of inspiration for the ever-present inscription "Clapton is God" on numerous high school walls.

However, as I look around today and try to come to grips with the world as it exists here in 2010, this iconic song generates a different, and much more serious, resonance. Our great nation truly is at a crossroads. The path that our country takes in the critical months ahead before the midterm elections, either by design, fate, or a combination of both, will have a profound effect on our collective future and our ability to navigate even more distant crossroads.

Between now and November, I look forward to bringing you my perspective on these pressing issues of national and international politics. I welcome comment and criticism, whether constructive or contrarian. I am deeply concerned with the direction that political discussion sometimes takes. Too often, even people who follow political issues on a regular basis are distracted by style over substance. Too often, the voices that yell the loudest are the ones that prevail. Too often, people are so focused on their own very local or personal concerns that they fail to see the proverbial forest for the trees.

Of course, in this day and age, there are so many sources of information, so many different ways people express themselves on a variety of topics. It has often been said that "opinions are like assholes, everybody's got one." However, I also firmly believe in the truism expressed by another quotation, one from the great Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis: "Sunlight is the best disinfectant." I hope that my opinion, as expressed in this blog, helps shed some sunlight on some ideas for a few of you and gets you thinking and talking.

We are truly at a critical juncture. Those on the far right want us to go take one road. Those on the far left want us to take another. I believe that there is yet another road that our country needs to take. I hope that my upcoming blogposts help convince you that we should take that other road, so that we can continue to make progress and fulfill the promise of our nation.

Otherwise, we'll just keep standin' at the crossroads, and I believe we'll be sinkin' down.