It's nice to have some good news, and it looks like Gadafi is finished today. It's hard to see how that could be bad.
I've used this blog to go on record with various predictions, though, so here's one with respect to Libya: The place will be a horrible mess, with lots of violence and perhaps ongoing civil war between factions of the currently victorious rebels. Lots more innocent people will die. There may be a massacre of civilians who were seen as loyal to the former dictator.
.....and I don't see how Western forces or support can change that outcome. The NATO strategy of bombing and supporting the rebels without sending troops in has been a success. But there remain limits to what can be done without lots of boots on the ground. We have to stay out of there and leave the results to the Libyans, come what may. I previously thought that US and European involvement would necessarily escalate, or that a bloodbath would occur in any case and we were only postponing it. It's looking like I might have been wrong there, and I'm glad I was! But I think it's really key to get out fast and declare victory now- don't get bogged down again.
Monday, August 22, 2011
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