Wednesday, October 19, 2011

GOP Debate Thoughts (well, really Mitt Romney thoughts)

Tuned in to part of the debate last night, and saw more highlights this morning.  Here are some thoughts:
  • Mitt Romney is the only one in there who sounds like he knows what he's talking about.  Everyone else on stage sounds either crazy or stupid or both.
  • One of the reasons Romney doesn't sound crazy is that even when he's saying crazy stuff he's so obviously pandering that sane people are convinced that he's lying about his views.  I think the crazies see this too, however, which is why they don't trust the guy.
  • There's a good chance the Republican nominee will win in 2012.  This is true no matter who is nominated- if the economy goes into a double dip, then Obama loses no matter what.  So although I won't be voting for any of these people (I'm not voting for a pro-life, low taxes, end-the-welfare-state candidate), I will be rooting for the one who will be the least destructive to the country, and I guess that's Romney.
  • The problem for him is this: yes he's pandering when he supports Paul Ryan's economic plan- he must know that the numbers don't add up and it will lead to higher deficits- but when he's in office he may well be straitjacketed by his campaigning and the rage of his base.  Look what happened to GHW Bush when he got sane and broke his "read my lips- no new taxes" pledge- he was voted out of office and forever hated by the zealots even though that tax compromise led to the Clinton-era surplus.  A President Romney's first priority will be to get re-elected.  I'm not sure how he finds that path.  If he follows the Republican platform as it's laid out now, the economy will be disastrously affected.  If he gets technocratic and realist, he loses the crazies in his base.
  • I'm considering the possibility that I'm just wrong about the economy.  Maybe Keynesian economics is dead, and austerity and balanced budgets will work after all.  Maybe President Romney will usher in a new Morning in America.  If he wins, I'll be hoping so, but I won't be very optimistic.

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