Predictions (updated 11/5/2011)

I do not look like this

I want to put some stuff on the record, for future "I told you so's" or future "Doh's!":

1. If the economy is really bad in 2012, it doesn't matter who the Republican nominee for president is, he'll win.  If the economy is so-so, like it is now, it's a toss-up
2. If the Republicans sweep in 2012, and implement the austerity policies they are campaigning on, the US economy will do very badly- tax cuts and spending cuts will not revive the economy, and will in fact make it worse.  Plus the deficit will be even worse.
3. It is possible, however, that President Romney, knowing that #2 is true, will somehow find a way to avoid these cuts and will do much of what Obama would do.  I think it's more likely, though, that he'll be forced into self-defeating policies.  After all, the House will be Republican and filled with True Believers, and they won't let him do stimulus.
4. It looks like the European debt crisis might lead to Greek and other default along with the end of the Euro.  If this happens, there will be a terrible worldwide recession no matter what the US does.  In that case, whoever is president of the US at the time will be blamed, even though he will be totally powerless to do anything about it.
5. UPDATE- One more point 11/5/2011: The actions of the Federal Reserve Board have been undercovered in the news.  The Fed announced this week that it expects unemployment to remain high for three years, but intends to do nothing about it in order to keep prices stable.  The Fed could do things- print money essentially, to spur inflation- but won't do that right now.  So on to the prediction: If the Fed takes massive action, such as targeting nominal GDP as many are urging, that would lead to economic growth and lots of good things.  If this happens soon, President Obama will get the credit.  If it happens in 2013, the next president will get the credit for the recovery.  Neither President Obama nor President Romney/Perry/Cain will have any control or deserve any credit for Fed action.  Obama can, however, be credited with the blame for the Fed not doing anything yet, since he re-appointed Bernanke and has not pushed for other Fed governors who would be more inclined to activity.
6. OK Still another point 11/5/2011: While I'm updating my predictions, I want to repeat one I've put down here before: If Republicans take control of the Senate, they will eliminate the filibuster as soon as the Democrats make noises about using it the way Republicans have been using it these past three years.

Filibuster Nonsense

James Fallows at the Atlantic has been on the warpath regarding the Republicans' constant use of the filibuster to stop any business from getting done in the Senate, in a quite unprecendented way, and of the mainstream media's inability to report this as the outrage that it is.  He calls it the "False Equivalence Watch" and I agree wholeheartedly.

But I have one quibble: Democrats could do something about this.  The tactic started being used in 2009, when we kept reading that Senate rules could be changed at the start of any new session by majority vote.  Well, the Democrats were still in control of the Senate in 2011 at the start of this term, and they didn't do anything about the filibuster.  President Obama hasn't made a rash of recess appointments in order to force the issue and get his picks into the positions in which he wants them.

As I've said before, if there is a Republican sweep in 2012, and Democrats start using the filibuster in this way to slow things down, the GOP will immediately end the filibuster.  Democrats will howl "unfair!"  And I'll have to restrain myself from driving to Washington and punching each of them in the face for their hopeless naivete. 

If there is somehow a Democratic sweep in 2012, I dearly hope the Democrats will end the filibuster, but I doubt they will.  They just don't have the courage of their convictions.  We liberals deserve our minority fate if we aren't willing to fight.

Health Care Repeal

Well, it looks like the Republicans are determined to push for full repeal of "ObamaCare" and have no intention of doing any sort of negotiation to improve the law and insert some of their own priorities.  This is no surprise of course- their base would destroy anyone who tried to compromise in any way. 

I could imagine an alternate universe in which Republicans proposed getting rid of the individual mandate or inserting tort reform in return for dropping plans for repeal and/or dropping attempted lawsuits.  In this world, however, they can't do it.

So what's going to happen?  Republicans are clearly going to fight like hell, with every weapon they can think of at their disposal, to destroy health care.  They'll use the courts, they'll use the filibuster, they'll use the budgetary process, and of course they'll continue to lie and demogogue it.  We know all this.

What we don't know is what Democrats will do.  Will they fight back?  Will they huddle in the corner sucking their thumbs?  Will they whine about how Republicans are abusing the filibuster?  Or will they stand up for what they supposedly believe in?

I wish I were more optimistic.  This fight isn't over yet.  The other side is bringing it- are the Democrats ready to keep fighting?

As an addendum, I'll just note that the Democrats are apparently making no changes in filibuster rules, so I fully expect Republicans to stall court nominations among other things.  Then I fully expect Democrats to express lots of predictable outrage while doing nothing about it.  Then, when Republicans are in charge of the Senate and the presidency, I fully expect them to eliminate the filibuster themselves without a second thought when Democrats start to use it, in the face of more Democrat outrage.  Republicans play hardball, and good for them- at least they believe in what they want enough to actually fight dirty for it.  If only their policies weren't so moronic....

Another Quick Prediction (posted by DT)

Here is a post that I plan to look up in a few years to say "I told you so".

The Republicans are going to end the filibuster as soon as they are back in power and the Democrats are using it to stop them from enacting their agenda.

Please don't misunderstand- this is not an anti-Republican post. The filibuster is being used maximally by the Republicans in an unprecedented manner in order to try to deny the Democrats any passage of their agenda. I think it's cynical and bad for the country, but it's within the rules and can be stopped by the Democrats if they want. Witness what happened early in President Bush's presidency when Democrats were filibustering judicial nominees- Republicans threatened the "nuclear option" and forced a compromise, allowing most of their judges to be voted on.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are now in power and won't even talk about the nuclear option. It seems they're hoping they can whine enough and convince the country to keep them in office. As I've said before, Democrats don't have the courage of their convictions and don't want to really fight for anything, which is why they will richly deserve the comeuppance that is looming in November. Republicans have no such qualms, and now that they've started a precedent of universal stalling, the Democrats will follow suit when they're in the minority and the GOP won't put up with that- they'll go nuclear.

Then the Democrats will whine that Republicans are ruining the comity of the Senate while the Republicans flip them the bird. For once I'd like to see Democrats be the ones flipping the bird.