Prediction for 2012

I might have written this before, but I want to make it easy for my future self to find this, so here it is:

The economy is recovering.  No matter who is elected president, and no matter who controls the congress, the economy will continue to recover in some fashion.  Unemployment will be lower in 2015 than it is today, perhaps much lower.

Whoever is elected (or re-elected) President in 2012 will get the credit for this recovery.  If that person is Mitt Romney, I want to go on record right now for saying that well ahead of time.  Similarly, if President Obama is a two-termer, he'll get more credit than he probably will deserve.

Recoveries always happen eventually.

Predictions (updated 11/5/2011)

I do not look like this

I want to put some stuff on the record, for future "I told you so's" or future "Doh's!":

1. If the economy is really bad in 2012, it doesn't matter who the Republican nominee for president is, he'll win.  If the economy is so-so, like it is now, it's a toss-up
2. If the Republicans sweep in 2012, and implement the austerity policies they are campaigning on, the US economy will do very badly- tax cuts and spending cuts will not revive the economy, and will in fact make it worse.  Plus the deficit will be even worse.
3. It is possible, however, that President Romney, knowing that #2 is true, will somehow find a way to avoid these cuts and will do much of what Obama would do.  I think it's more likely, though, that he'll be forced into self-defeating policies.  After all, the House will be Republican and filled with True Believers, and they won't let him do stimulus.
4. It looks like the European debt crisis might lead to Greek and other default along with the end of the Euro.  If this happens, there will be a terrible worldwide recession no matter what the US does.  In that case, whoever is president of the US at the time will be blamed, even though he will be totally powerless to do anything about it.
5. UPDATE- One more point 11/5/2011: The actions of the Federal Reserve Board have been undercovered in the news.  The Fed announced this week that it expects unemployment to remain high for three years, but intends to do nothing about it in order to keep prices stable.  The Fed could do things- print money essentially, to spur inflation- but won't do that right now.  So on to the prediction: If the Fed takes massive action, such as targeting nominal GDP as many are urging, that would lead to economic growth and lots of good things.  If this happens soon, President Obama will get the credit.  If it happens in 2013, the next president will get the credit for the recovery.  Neither President Obama nor President Romney/Perry/Cain will have any control or deserve any credit for Fed action.  Obama can, however, be credited with the blame for the Fed not doing anything yet, since he re-appointed Bernanke and has not pushed for other Fed governors who would be more inclined to activity.
6. OK Still another point 11/5/2011: While I'm updating my predictions, I want to repeat one I've put down here before: If Republicans take control of the Senate, they will eliminate the filibuster as soon as the Democrats make noises about using it the way Republicans have been using it these past three years.