Electoral Predictions, and a quick thought

It's been a while since I've blogged, and I apologize to all my loyal fans out there for the delay.

Actually, politics is a bit boring now, which is an odd thing to say given that the election is three days away and everything is in high gear.  But the reality is that everything has been said, all the points have been made, and we're just recycling the same old arguments.

So during this, probably my last blog post before the 2012 elections, here are some predictions:

• Barack Obama will win the election.  This isn't any kind of brilliant analysis.  It's just that fact-based aggregators of polls are all saying that state-by-state polling indicates a small but solid lead in Ohio for Obama, and lots of virtual ties in other key states like Florida.  Romney has to sweep these to win, and that isn't likely.  It looks like Obama could well lose the popular vote, which would be a fitting bookend to 2000.  I might get a sort of sick pleasure out of the hypocritical Republican talking points that would inevitably follow, touting Obama's illegitimacy.
• It looks like the Democrats are going to keep the Senate, which is shocking because they are defending many more seats than the Republicans (the Democratic sweep in 2006 means that all those seats are up in 2012).  Somehow, Republicans have squandered many seats they could have had by nominating extreme candidates, spouting incredibly extreme views on abortion among other things. 
• Here in Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown are in a tight battle.  But it looks like Warren is going to pull it out according to polls.  I'm surprised about this; anecdotally, I know a lot of people who are Brown supporters.  It seems like he's done a great job positioning himself as the centrist, "bipartisan" senator.  But I guess moderate liberals in Massachusetts have bought Warren's argument that the national Republican party is so extreme that we just have to have a Democratic controlled Senate.  I'm pleasantly surprised to see that message working.

I guess those predictions are kind of boring, though- just my reflection of the current polling data.  GEEK!!!!

This election is really important, though.  I guess we say that about every election.  But an Obama defeat means that the health care act will be gutted before it gets to really take hold.  This is the last major piece of the liberal welfare state, and once it's established I think it will be very hard to repeal. This is the GOP's last chance to take it out before it starts.