Monday, November 26, 2012

The Perils of Policy Victory

Chart From Slate
Most of what I write is recycled dreck from other liberal writers ("Hey there, CannonFoundry, no we love you and know you're really original!"), but every once in a while I come up with an original though.  Here's one I was proud of, in which I compare the problems of AIPAC and the NRA- two organizations that are cursed by their amazing success in implementing their agendas in the USA.  With support for Israel just about unopposed in Congress, and with gun control on nobody's agenda in the US, these organizations have to come up with new goals to justify their continued existence.

So I thought of another example of this phenomenon.  It was suggested to me by this Bruce Bartlett article
I had written an op-ed for the New York Times in 2007 suggesting that it was time to retire “supply-side economics” as a school of thought. Having been deeply involved in its development, I felt that everything important the supply-siders had to say had now been fully incorporated into mainstream economics... I said the supply-siders should declare victory and go home.
 
To look at it another way, tax rates were in the stratosphere throughout the 1960s and 1970s, and Ronald Reagan and the Supply Siders came in during the '80s and totally changed the dynamic on taxes.  Although marginal tax rates have wandered up and down since 1981, they've never come close to the 50+% top marginal rate that prevailed before that time, and such a rate isn't even being considered by either party.  Hell, even I, more liberal than nearly everyone in Congress, don't support a top tax rate that high. 

So the Reaganites have won on this: historically low taxes are now the new normal.  And yet Republicans continue to double down on lowering taxes.  No matter how low taxes go, they're still way too high according to the Right.  They don't know how to declare victory and continue on to something else.  Like the NRA desperately inventing conspiracy theories, they just can't figure out how to move on.

Oh, and look at the accompanying chart, which shows that marginal tax rates have no apparent effect on economic growth!

2 comments:

  1. Supply-side economics is a school of thought that argues that economic growth can be most effectively created by lowering barriers for people to produce (supply) goods and services, such as lowering income tax and capital gains tax rates, and by allowing greater flexibility by reducing regulation. According to supply-side economics, consumers will then benefit from a greater supply of goods and services at lower prices. Typical policy recommendations of supply-side economists are lower marginal tax rates and less regulation.
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    The opposite of Supply-side economics is a school of thought that argues that economic growth can be most effectively created by raising barriers for people to produce (supply) goods and services, such as raising income tax and capital gains tax rates, and by allowing less flexibility by increasing regulation. In the opposite of supply-side economics, consumers will benefit from a lower supply of goods and services at higher prices. Typical policy recommendations of those opposed to supply-side economists are higher marginal tax rates and more regulation.
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    You Foundry Bloggers are so smart. Except,,you actually do think higher taxes and more regulations will stir you to get out and shop.
    Tell your wives your getting a pay cut and you both should celebrate by booking a Cruise. See what she says.

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  2. Increase in the rates of raw materials and manpower cost will definitely impact on the market and its trends.
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